Preview: The Tour Junkies dish out the goods for The WGC Bridgestone Invitational from Firestone CC and what it’s going to take to build the right DraftKings lineups. David and Pat come together to give their lock, value plays, sleeper and the player to avoid in DFS formats.
Key Stats: SG: Off the Tee / Ownership / Course History / Recent Form
Lock of the week:
Brooks Koepka $8,900 - We told you last week Brooks was in full DGAF mode and that proved to be the culprit in his trunk slamming performance at the RBC Canadian. However, it’s a new week with a WGC title on the line which means Brooks will give a rip. He pissed on 24% of lineups last week across most tournaments, and will likely see lower ownership in this stacked field of 70 something golfers. Brooks fits this course perfectly from a stat perspective and his aggressive nature will lead to optimal DraftKings scoring over the four rounds at Firestone. We hope the recency bias throws people off, and we’ll take advantage in tournaments on DraftKings with confidence.Value Plays:
Embed from Getty Images Henrik Stenson $9,000 - Everyone’s favorite fun-lovin Swede is an obvious value this week at Firestone with his fairway-finding, 3-wood-bombing, 32-strokes-gained-total-over-the-last-five-years self. Accuracy and distance off the tee is a major factor this week and Henrik checks both boxes easily. After his T35 at The Open, he may also see some lower ownership numbers like our boy Brooks. The ownership game is crucial this week with only 70 players and no cut. In theory, everyone will get 6/6 through unless a WD. You’re going to want leverage in your lineups. If you play too many chalk players, you’ll break even, at best on DraftKings. Henrik and Brooks feel like two value plays with tremendous scoring potential and low ownership numbers.Patrick Cantlay $8,200 - Cantlay has lost some of the early season shine he held with most hardcore PGA Tour DFS players. His ownership was sub 5% at The Open, but he finished T12. This field, this course, and this stage are NOT too big for Cantlay. He’s top 15 in this field in SG: OTT and 7th in proximity. His putting isn’t great, but he does ok on bentgrass surfaces as opposed to other surfaces. We’ll take some shares of the Firestone first timer given his winning upside and ball striking prowess.
Tony Finau $8,000 - The 18Birdies ambassador is likely going to see the higher ownership numbers of anyone we’ve written up here in DraftKings contests. But, we just can’t avoid him here where driving the golf ball long and in the fairway is so critical. This is his first crack at Firestone, his SG: OTT numbers lately are off the charts, and his Ryder Cup debut looms large if he can finish strong. Finau won’t be lacking for motivation this week with a WGC title and Ryder Cup points up for grabs. We’ll gladly eat the high ownership in tournaments and cash games.
Best bargain basement option:
Embed from Getty Images Aaron Wise $6,700 - We’re in absolute LOVE with the price tag on young Aaron Wise this week. The rookie checks all the boxes. He’s a first-time winner this season that crushes the ball off the tee. He’s never played a WGC event before, he’s missed his last two cuts, and he checks no other boxes outside of off the tee numbers. However, the tee shots at Firestone are numero uno in our models this week. For the $6,700 price tag and automatic four rounds with no cut, we’ll take some tournament shares of Wise.Player to Avoid:
Justin Thomas $8,800 - WARNING: This may be the hardest fade of the year. The price tag ALONE is going to have people locking him in across probably 30% of lineups in tournaments. It’s probably the lowest price for Justin since early 2016. It’s truly an incredible value. Jordan Spieth’s best friend is also a bomber that scores DraftKings points.Now, let us tell you why we won’t play him...First, it’s the ownership angle. We’d be shocked if he’s lower than 30% owned in tournaments and 45% in cash games. His best finish at Firestone was T28 last season despite being in better form than he is coming in this season. He just missed his last cut at The Open Championship. In the last 12 rounds, he’s 54th in SG: OTT and 33rd in Proximity while he’s 35th in SG: Putting on bentgrass over the last 50 rounds. The stats don’t line up for success outside of driving distance and scoring potential. We’ll fade and hold our breath on the steal of the year at $8,800.
