Preview: The Tour Junkies dish out the goods for The PGA Championship from Bellerive and what it’s going to take to build the right DraftKings lineups. David and Pat come together to give their lock, value plays, sleeper and player to avoid in DFS formats.

Key Stats: SG: Off the Tee / Proximity / Birdie or Better%  / Ownership / Recent Form

Lock of the week:

Embed from Getty Images Rory Mcllroy $11,000 - Watch out world! Rory is coming in hot and bothered this week! We bet he’s just itching for a big win after seeing DJ and JT in the winner’s circle the last couple of weeks. He’s coming off a 6th at WGC and a runner-up at The Open. We love the high ball flight and draw bias to Rory’s ball off the tee. Bellerive seems to fit a guy that can bomb it off the tee with tons of carry and a slight draw bias. The PGA Championship typically lends itself to low scores and resembles the typical PGA Tour event more so than the other majors. You’re going to need guys that can go low and birdie in optimal conditions. Rory is checking the stat boxes, coming in under the radar (relative to usual), and eager for a big win. DJ’s going to eat some ownership, then we see people dipping down to JT and Brooks on DraftKings. This could leave Rory sub 15% in big GPPs on DraftKings and other sites. Don’t miss out on that deal.

Value Plays:

Brooks Koepka $9,600 - Big game Brooks comes in severely underpriced yet again at a major championship. Coming off a T5 at WGC, Brooks is checking all the boxes important to play well at Bellerive. He’s top 5 in the field in SG: OTT, top 15 in Proximity, and 2nd in BoB% in the last 12 rounds. Being a bomber that can score in bunches with a proven record in big events will likely lead to Koepka’s ownership being in the 20% range in most tournaments, but we’re playing him regardless given the upside and value.

Embed from Getty Images

Patrick Cantlay $8,400 - WARNING! This is NOT the time to get off the Cantlay Express! This kid is on a roll. He’s a special talent in terms of ball striking. Bellerive will reward the tee to green prowess that Patrick has been flashing all year. With guys like Keegan Bradley, Jason Dufner and Jimmy Walker winning the PGA Championship in the last five years, there’s no reason to believe that the inexperienced Cantlay can’t do the same. He’s got three straight top 15’s in the last three events with a T6 last week at Firestone. In the last 12 and 24 rounds on the PGA Tour, Cantlay is top 10 or better in SG: OTT, Proximity and BoB%! Wow! We don’t care how popular he looks to be when lineup lock comes around, we’ll have tons of him in GPPs and cash games on DraftKings.

Ian Poulter $7,400 - “Poults” sure did hurt our feelings at The Open Championship, but he’s since bounced back with a T12 in Canada and a T10 last week at Firestone. Unless you’re into frosted tips, rude Brits and visors...there’s nothing sexy about Poulter. However, he’s been steady this season. Statistically, he’s checking every box, but not really crushing any of them. He seems like a safe cut maker pick with T10 upside priced at a discount at $7.4K. We’ll roll with him in tournaments and cash in hopes he doesn’t repeat the trunk slamming activities of Open Championship week.

Best bargain basement option:

Embed from Getty Images

Jordan Smith $6,400 - We wanted to give you a SUPER DEEP SLEEPER here, despite liking other plays in the $6K range like Wise, Putnam, Li, and Hossler. Jordan Smith is an unknown player on this side of the pond, but he’s had streaks of brilliance across the pond on the European Tour. He’s an aggressive player that hits the ball a long way. We like the skill set off the tee here at Bellerive for Jordan. Plus, he finished 9th in last years PGA Championship (remember, anyone can pop at the PGA due to the lower scoring potential). If you’re playing the Milly Maker on DraftKings, consider a few shares of Jordan. His ownership will easily be below 2% more than likely. We don’t recommend him in cash games.

Player to Avoid:

Tiger Woods $9,900 - In heavily public tournaments, we’re going to lean against playing Tiger due to his ownership. But in this case, it’s not just the ownership...it’s the price tag. Tiger being more expensive than JT, Brooks, Fleetwood, Molinari, Day, etc doesn’t feel right on paper. In the last 12 and 24 rounds on the PGA Tour, Tiger ranks 75th in SG: OTT. That’s not good people! Bellerive is a driver heavy course requiring length and accuracy. We could easily see Tiger struggling here off the tee. We’ll have zero exposure in tournaments and cash games primarily due to price.