Lock of the week:
Webb Simpson $9,400 - If there’s anyone on the PGA Tour that feels due for a win, it’s Webb Simpson. Webber’s been playing very good golf recently after having found his new putting stroke since the anchor ban. He’s always been a world-class ball striker with accuracy off the tee and deadly iron play. In the last 12 rounds, Webb is 4th in the field in SG: Putting, 15th in SG: Approach, and 23rd in SG: Around the Green in this field. Having gained 17 strokes total at Harbour Town in the last five years in addition to the fine form makes Simpson a lock for us in cash and GPP contests on DraftKings.Value Plays:
Kevin Kisner $8,700 - We know for a fact Harbour Town is a course circled on Kiz’s calendar every year. He loves the shots this track forces him to make as evidenced by his 19 strokes gained here over the last five years. His form has been rather benign so far this season, but this is the time of year he turns it up. At The Masters, he finished T28 with 16 birdies and an eagle on his way to only one of four rounds being over par. His game sets up perfectly for Harbour Town given his precise iron play and excellent short game. He may go a little under-owned given the lack of form and statistical pop, but we’ll take it given his winning upside. We’re loading up on Kiz in cash and GPPs. #WhoLitTheKizAdam Hadwin $8,100 - Unlike Kiz, Hadwin is checking a ton of statistical boxes coming into Harbour Town. The Canadian is 1st in SG: Approach, 3rd in SG: Around the Green and 28th in Fairways Gained against this field over the last 12 rounds. With back to back top 30s at Harbour Town the last two years, Hadwin has winning upside if he can warm up the flatstick just a bit. He’ll likely be higher owned in DFS, but he’s a popular play we’re not willing to fade. He’s a lock in cash and we’ll have around 40% of him in GPPs on DraftKings.
Wesley Bryan $7,200 - If you listened to the Tour Junkies Podcast this week, you heard Wesley’s caddie, William Lanier, talk about Wesley’s game and what it takes to win the RBC Heritage. Last week, we had George Bryan (Wesley’s brother) on the podcast talking about the strides his brother has made with the driver recently. Wesley hasn’t had the same year leading up to this event as he did last year, but he seems to be trending. He missed the cut at his first Masters last week, but most 1st timers do and he didn’t card a single double bogey or worse in 36 holes. We love the price tag for the defending champ this week, and if he comes in low owned at a course built for him, when those closest to him think he’s getting his game together...then, we’ll take him!
Best bargain basement option:
Chris Kirk $7,100 - The Georgia Bulldog has documented how much he loves this golf course in recent years on his way to gaining 10 strokes total over the last five years here. He’s top 25 in this field over the last 12 rounds in SG: Approach and top half of the field in every other key category. He finished T13 at Bay Hill and his upside is a victory at a course like Harbour Town. He’ll be a low owned GPP play for us in DraftKings.
Player to Avoid:
Matt Kuchar $10,300 - Before you freak out, this fade is not a complete fade, but more of a precaution against having too much Kuchar. Kuchar’s course history is ridiculously good at Harbour Town. They should borderline rename this place Kuchar Town. Kuchar’s form hasn’t been terrible. He’s had some solid finishes. However, as the third highest priced guy on DraftKings, you need him to finish T10 at a minimum to really return value. The other factor here is the significant ownership for Kuch. He’ll likely be the highest owned player hovering around the 25-30% mark. Additionally, Kuchar’s stats haven’t been amazing the last 12 rounds when you dig in. He’s 35th in SG: Approach, 62nd in Fairways Gained, 102nd in SG: Around the Green and 44th in SG: Putting. That’s not great for a guy at $10,800. We aren’t fading Kuchar because we think he’ll miss the cut. We’re fading him because we don’t think he’ll return enough value given such high price and ownership.The 18Birdies app is available for iPhone and Android — Click here for your free download. For more information and content, check out 18Birdies.com.
