Key Stats for TPC San Antonio: SG: Off the Tee / SG: Approach / SG: Around the Green / DraftKings Scoring
Lock of the week: Embed from Getty Images Luke List $10,000 - As crazy as it seems to play List at $10K, you can’t argue with the form and stats. Luke has gained over 29 strokes total in the last six weeks on the PGA Tour. He’s 1st in SG: App, 3rd in SG: OTT and 35th in SG: ATG in the last 12 rounds. We suspect he’ll be highly owned in DraftKings GPP contests, but we’re willing to play him regardless, especially in cash.
Value Plays:
Brendan Steele $8,900 - You know where Steele’s first win as a PGA Tour professional occured…? Right here! After missing the cut at The Masters a couple of weeks ago, we’re hoping Steele is lower owned than usual in GPPs. Steele is an elite ball striker on tour which will come in handy with windy conditions inevitable in Texas. He’s 1st in SG: OTT and 28th in SG: APP in the last 12 rounds. Steele is easily one of the best players in this field and the likelihood of two missed cuts in a row from him is as likely as Tour Junkies Pat Perry getting a hard part with his next haircut. Lock and load the Cali kid in GPPs and cash.
Embed from Getty Images Keegan Bradley $7,900 - We had an interesting discussion on Keegan starting around the 34-minute mark on the Tour Junkies Podcast this week. David is typically pretty good at predicting a good Keegan week and he feels like it’s coming for the Valero. The stats just line up for him this week. He’s 17th in SG: APP, 23rd in SG: ATG, and 35th in SG: OTT in the last 12 rounds. Keegan’s a well-known ball striker and the value given his potential to get hot just feels good this week. People are typically a little tentative to play Keegan on DraftKings due to his erratic play, so we’ll advise a GPP play only for this week. Avoid him in cash.
Grayson Murray $7,300 - If you’re looking for a bomber who can score and look like an idiot on social media, Grayson is your guy! The form is ok, but the scoring potential and length will be an asset at TPC San Antonio. Murray ranks 22nd in SG: APP, 26th in SG: ATG and 34th in SG: OTT in the last 12 rounds. We’re not big fans of many $6K guys this week so Grayson will find his way on a handful of GPP rosters. He’s a boom or bust play as demonstrated by three top 15’s and three missed cuts in his last six events, but that’s what you’re looking for in this price range.
Best bargain basement option: Embed from Getty Images Abraham Ancer $6,900 - Ancer is the lowest priced guy we feel comfortable with given the weak field and pricing structure. In the last six weeks, there’s only one player in the field that’s gained more strokes total than Ancer (List). His form is outstanding and he’s gaining a lot of his strokes with impeccable ball striking from tee to green. Ancer may not go completely under the radar in GPPs, but he’ll be low enough to bring some leverage. If you really want to get frisky, we won’t be mad at you if you roll him out even in cash games on DraftKings.
Player to Avoid:
Billy Horschel $9,100 - Don’t be a sucker for Billy Ho at this price! We could stop there, but we’ll continue for the sake of word count and SEO. We like Billy. He does tend to run hot when he flashes form. The T5 last week at the RBC Heritage was interesting, but the form prior was garbage. TPC San Antonio is a very different track than Harbour Town. Billy’s severe price increase to $9,100 is the opposite of good value in terms of DraftKings. It is a weak field event with player prices looking askew as a result, but the price on Horschel is just too high to overcome. He’s 94th in this field in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds and 135th in SG: ATG. We’ll be completely fading the Florida Gator as a result.
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